Science Info and Calculations

How the app reaches each number it shows. Each page starts with a plain explanation and goes on to the full formulas, with the source of every formula and the constants as the app's code holds them. Values marked Starting value come from the tournament record, published ranges or engineering judgment, and the tournament backtest and anglers' logbooks are there to check them; a Working rule is a simplification the model makes.

• 1. Wind over waterWhy the open lake is windier than the shore, and how the app turns a forecast into over-water wind.
• 2. WavesFetch, depth and wind; significant and largest wave height; the two wave models compared.
• 3. Water temperatureThe heat-balance projection with its wind term, and the statistical 80% band from 31 years of data.
• 4. Fronts and pressureWhat a cold front changes, and why the barometer itself is only a timing signal.
• 5. Water clarityHow wind stirring and river plumes stain the water, and the clarity index behind lure colors.
• 6. Fish and temperatureSeason phases from lake temperature, target depth bands, and the evidence or starting value behind each.
• 7. ScoringHard filters, then a weighted decision matrix of nine factors, with a worked example.
• 8. Bayesian updatingHow your logbook moves a score: prior, data and posterior, from 2 good days in 4 to 0.625.
• 9. ValidationGolden tests, the tournament backtest and its latest result, and the known limits.
• 10. ReferencesPapers, manuals and data sources, with links.

Calculators

The calculators run the app's own engine in this browser, so they give the numbers the plan would use.

• Wave height from wind, fetch and depthOn the Waves page.
• Water temperature projectionOn the Water temperature page.
• Clarity after a blowOn the Water clarity page.
• Season phase and depth bandOn the Fish and temperature page.
• Area score, worked exampleOn the Scoring page.
• Beta-binomial updateOn the Bayesian updating page.