References

Waves and wind

• U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (1984). Shore Protection Manual, 4th edition. Coastal Engineering Research Center, Vicksburg, Mississippi. Shallow-water wave height and period, the adjusted wind speed (chapter 3); small-amplitude wave theory for crest spacing (chapter 2).
• Young, I.R. and Verhagen, L.A. (1996). The growth of fetch limited waves in water of finite depth. Part 1. Total energy and peak frequency. Coastal Engineering 29: 47-78. The comparison wave model.
• Longuet-Higgins, M.S. (1952). On the statistical distribution of the heights of sea waves. Journal of Marine Research 11: 245-266. Rayleigh distribution of wave heights; the largest wave in about an hour, 1.86 Hs.
• Resio, D.T. and Vincent, C.L. (1977). Estimation of winds over the Great Lakes. Journal of the Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Division (ASCE) 103: 265-283. Over-water to over-land wind ratio, as given in the Shore Protection Manual.

Water temperature

• Edinger, J.E., Duttweiler, D.W. and Geyer, J.C. (1968). The response of water temperatures to meteorological conditions. Water Resources Research 4: 1137-1143. Equilibrium temperature and a wind-dependent exchange coefficient, the form of the heat-balance model.

Statistics

• Gelman, A., Carlin, J.B., Stern, H.S., Dunson, D.B., Vehtari, A. and Rubin, D.B. (2013). Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd edition. CRC Press. Free copy from the authors. Beta-binomial model (chapter 2), hierarchical models (chapter 5).

Lake St. Clair and its fish

• Thomas, M.V. and Haas, R.C. (2012). Status of Lake St. Clair Submerged Plants, Fish Community, and Sport Fishery. Michigan DNR Fisheries Research Report 2099. Water clarity (Secchi depth) and submerged plants.
• Bryant, W.C. and Smith, K.D. (1988). Distribution and Population Dynamics of Smallmouth Bass in Anchor Bay, Lake St. Clair. Michigan DNR Fisheries Research Report 1944. Smallmouth movement within the lake (tag returns).
• NOAA Office of Coast Survey. U.S. Coast Pilot 6, chapter 8 (Lake St. Clair). The Gaukler Point ledge (area US4); water level changes in strong wind.
• Schramm, H. (2008). Need an excuse? Don't blame that front. Mississippi Sportsman. Fronts and bass fishing: the weather that comes with a front rather than the pressure.

Data sources

• NOAA GLERL, Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis (GLSEA), lake-average surface temperature. Lake temperature, 1995 to today.
• NOAA National Data Buoy Center, station 45147 (Lake St. Clair, seasonal). Mid-lake wind, waves and water temperature.
• National Weather Service API: gridded forecasts and alerts. Forecast wind, temperature and sky; small craft advisories.
• National Weather Service marine forecast, zone LCZ460 (Lake St. Clair). Marine forecast text and waves.
• Iowa Environmental Mesonet, airport observations (Selfridge ANGB KMTC, Detroit Metro KDTW). Weather history: wind, temperature, pressure.
• NOAA NCEI, U.S. Climate Normals 1991-2020, daily normals for Selfridge (USW00014804). Air temperature after the 7-day forecast.
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Outlook for days 8-14.
• USGS National Hydrography Dataset, high resolution. Lake shoreline for fetch and routes.
• NOAA/GLERL/CHS (1999). Bathymetry of Lake Erie and Lake Saint Clair. Depth contours on the map.
• NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, solar calculator. Sunrise and sunset equations.

Tournament results and guide accounts behind the evidence: each record with its link on the Data and sources page. Fishing rules: the Regulations page, with the official source of every rule.

In the code

• Engine (formulas and constants): packages/engine/src. Reference scripts in Python: reference/python. Golden values: data/golden/engine_golden.json. Specification: docs/SPEC.md, section 5.
• Math on these pages is set with KaTeX (MIT licence).