Lake St. Clair conditions today
Wednesday, October 7, 2026. Conditions, not a fishing report: this page has no catch reports.
Lake St. Clair, Wednesday, October 7, 2026: lake 62.0 F (projected from the satellite value of Oct 5), 0.5 F above the 1995-2025 mean for the date; over-water wind 13-20 mph (NWS, mid-lake); CastScience Wave Prediction at the roughest area up to 2.0 ft (largest about 3.7 ft, Middle Channel outflow, outer Anchor Bay edge); no NWS marine alert in effect; season phase early fall.
Lake temperature
Measured: satellite lake average (NOAA GLERL GLSEA), newest day Oct 5 at 64.0 F. The satellite analysis runs a day or two behind.
Projection from the satellite value of Oct 5: a daily heat-balance model. Each day the lake moves toward the day's mean air temperature, faster in wind. The weather of its days: 2 observed at the airport stations, 7 from the NWS forecast, 0 from the NOAA 1991-2020 normals. 80% range: the projection plus or minus 1.28 times the residual standard deviation of a regression of later on earlier GLSEA temperatures, 1995-2025, for the same lead time. Science: water temperature
Wind and waves by period
| Hours | Wind over water | CastScience Wave Prediction, roughest area |
|---|---|---|
| 00:00-06:00 | 16-20 mph from SW | 2.0 ft (largest about 3.7 ft) Middle Channel outflow, outer Anchor Bay edge, 05:00; wind there 20 mph from SW |
| 06:00-12:00 | 16-20 mph from SW | 2.0 ft (largest about 3.7 ft) Middle Channel outflow, outer Anchor Bay edge, 06:00; wind there 20 mph from SW |
| 12:00-18:00 | 13-15 mph from W | 1.5 ft (largest about 2.9 ft) Canadian main basin, east of the channel, 12:00; wind there 15 mph from SW |
| 18:00-24:00 | 14-17 mph from W | 1.8 ft (largest about 3.3 ft) Canadian main basin, east of the channel, 22:00; wind there 17 mph from W |
Wind over water: NWS forecast over open water (mid-lake), issued Tue, Oct 6, 21:49 EDT. CastScience Wave Prediction: modeled for each of the lake's 12 areas from the forecast wind at the area's own over-water forecast point, the open-water distance upwind (fetch) and the depth; each row gives the area with the highest significant wave height in those hours. Hours in local time. Science: waves
Wave model details
Wave heights are model estimates from forecast wind, not measurements. Checked against the mid-lake buoy (2003-2026), the highest waves of a 12-hour period were 25% or more above the estimate in 1 period in 5, and in 2 periods in 5 when waves were above 2 ft.
Check the marine forecast and the water at the launch before you go. The decision to go out is yours. Full text
Season phase and front
Season phase: Early fall.
Lake 62.0 F, cooling 0.35 F a day over the last 7 days: 58-68 F and cooling between September and November, so early fall.
Front: Stable.
No front signal in the hourly pressure and wind data, so stable (assumption).
The phase temperature limits and the front rules are starting assumptions. Science: fish and temperature, fronts
Advisories and warnings
No NWS marine alert in effect today for zone LCZ460 (NOAA National Weather Service).
Data ages
How old each source was at Wed, Oct 7, 00:00 EDT, when these values were read.
| CPC 6-14 day outlook | 7 h | |
| Ice cover (GLERL) | 10 h | |
| Lake temperature (GLSEA) | 12 h | |
| Airport daily weather, Detroit Metro | 16 h | |
| Airport daily weather, Selfridge | 16 h | |
| Airport hourly weather, Detroit Metro | 29 min | |
| Airport hourly weather, Selfridge | 32 min | |
| NWS open lakes forecast | 72 min | |
| NWS marine forecast, LCZ460 | 34 min | |
| Shore station, St. Clair Shores | 27 min | |
| Buoy, 45147 | 14 min | |
| NWS marine alerts, LCZ460 | 20 min | |
| NWS forecast, Metropark | 41 min | |
| NWS forecast, mid-lake | 35 min | |
| NWS forecast, New Baltimore | 37 min | |
| NWS forecast, St. Clair Shores | 39 min | |
| Water level | 12 min |
Values as of Wed, Oct 7, 00:00 EDT. This page is rebuilt once a day, at about 06:30 EDT (05:30 EST in winter).
Live values and the plan
Water conditions and Forecast show these values live, hour by hour; Plan ranks the areas for your boat and limits. They open after the Terms of Use are accepted.
RSS feed of the daily pages: /feed.xml