Lake Erie (eastern basin) conditions today
Wednesday, October 7, 2026. Conditions, not a fishing report: this page has no catch reports.
Lake Erie (eastern basin), Wednesday, October 7, 2026: lake 64.3 F (projected from the satellite value of Oct 5), 0.2 F above the 1995-2025 mean for the date; over-water wind 17-24 mph (NWS, off Sturgeon Point); CastScience Wave Prediction at the roughest area up to 7.2 ft (largest about 13.3 ft, Deep shelf off Angola (outside the boulder ledge south-west of Sturgeon Point)); in effect: Small Craft Advisory (NWS); Strong wind warning IN EFFECT (ECCC, Eastern Lake Erie); season phase early fall.
Lake temperature
Measured: satellite basin mean (NOAA GLERL GLSEA grid), newest day Oct 5 at 66.0 F. The satellite analysis runs a day or two behind.
Projection from the satellite value of Oct 5: a daily heat-balance model. Each day the lake moves toward the day's mean air temperature, faster in wind. The weather of its days: 2 observed at the airport stations, 7 from the NWS forecast, 0 from the NOAA 1991-2020 normals. 80% range: the projection plus or minus 1.28 times the residual standard deviation of a regression of later on earlier GLSEA temperatures, 1995-2025, for the same lead time. Science: water temperature
Wind and waves by period
| Hours | Wind over water | CastScience Wave Prediction, roughest area |
|---|---|---|
| 00:00-06:00 | 17-22 mph from S | 6.2 ft (largest about 11.4 ft) Caution: waves may be higher than 2 ft. Forecast significant wave height at Deep shelf off Angola (outside the boulder ledge south-west of Sturgeon Point): 6.2 ft (average of the highest third). Largest wave in about an hour: 11.4 ft. Deep shelf off Angola (outside the boulder ledge south-west of Sturgeon Point), 02:00; wind there 22 mph from S |
| 06:00-12:00 | 21-23 mph from SW | 6.8 ft (largest about 12.7 ft) Caution: waves may be higher than 2 ft. Forecast significant wave height at Offshore bedrock humps west of Van Buren Point: 6.8 ft (average of the highest third). Largest wave in about an hour: 12.6 ft. Offshore bedrock humps west of Van Buren Point, 09:00; wind there 23 mph from SW |
| 12:00-18:00 | 23-24 mph from SW | 7.2 ft (largest about 13.3 ft) Caution: waves may be higher than 2 ft. Forecast significant wave height at Deep shelf off Angola (outside the boulder ledge south-west of Sturgeon Point): 7.2 ft (average of the highest third). Largest wave in about an hour: 13.3 ft. Deep shelf off Angola (outside the boulder ledge south-west of Sturgeon Point), 15:00; wind there 24 mph from SW |
| 18:00-24:00 | 18-24 mph from SW | 7.2 ft (largest about 13.3 ft) Caution: waves may be higher than 2 ft. Forecast significant wave height at Deep shelf off Angola (outside the boulder ledge south-west of Sturgeon Point): 7.2 ft (average of the highest third). Largest wave in about an hour: 13.3 ft. Deep shelf off Angola (outside the boulder ledge south-west of Sturgeon Point), 18:00; wind there 24 mph from SW |
Wind over water: NWS forecast over open water (off Sturgeon Point), issued Tue, Oct 6, 21:57 EDT. CastScience Wave Prediction: modeled for each of the lake's 29 areas from the forecast wind at the area's own over-water forecast point, the open-water distance upwind (fetch) and the depth; each row gives the area with the highest significant wave height in those hours. Hours in local time. Science: waves
Wave model details
Wave heights are model estimates from forecast wind, not measurements, multiplied by 1.10 as a safety margin. Checked against two eastern-basin buoys with the wind measured there, the estimates ran high: in a typical hour about 1.4 times the measured height in open water and 1.7 times near Presque Isle. Actual waves were higher than the estimate in about 1 hour in 13 in open water and 1 in 45 near shore. Checked at the National Weather Service forecast wind for the first 12 hours of each forecast, the highest measured wave was above the estimate in about 1 rough period (waves above 3.3 ft) in 16 in open water and 1 in 29 near shore. Forecasts further ahead are less certain.
Check the marine forecast and the water at the launch before you go. The decision to go out is yours. Full text
Season phase and front
Season phase: Early fall.
Lake 64.3 F, cooling 0.42 F a day over the last 7 days: 58-68 F and cooling between September and November, so early fall.
Front: Stable.
No front signal in the hourly pressure and wind data, so stable (assumption).
The phase temperature limits and the front rules are starting assumptions. Science: fish and temperature, fronts
Advisories and warnings
Small Craft Advisory: Small Craft Advisory issued October 6 at 9:45PM EDT until October 7 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Cleveland OH
From Wed, Oct 7, 04:00 EDT to Wed, Oct 7, 22:00 EDT. Zone LEZ149. NOAA National Weather Service.
Small Craft Advisory: Small Craft Advisory issued October 6 at 10:31PM EDT until October 7 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY
From Wed, Oct 7, 04:00 EDT to Wed, Oct 7, 23:00 EDT. Zone LEZ040. NOAA National Weather Service.
Strong wind warning IN EFFECT (Eastern Lake Erie; Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada).
Issued Tue, Oct 6, 18:30 EDT. ECCC gives no end time: the warning stands until a later ECCC forecast drops it. Read Tue, Oct 6, 23:06 EDT.
Data ages
How old each source was at Wed, Oct 7, 00:00 EDT, when these values were read.
| CPC 6-14 day outlook | 7 h | |
| ECCC marine forecast and warnings | 54 min | |
| Ice cover (GLERL) | 10 h | |
| Lake temperature (GLSEA grid) | 12 h | |
| Airport daily weather, Buffalo Niagara | 16 h | |
| Airport daily weather, Dunkirk | 16 h | |
| Airport daily weather, Erie | 16 h | |
| Airport hourly weather, Buffalo Niagara | 5 min | |
| Airport hourly weather, Dunkirk | 66 min | |
| Airport hourly weather, Erie | 2 min | |
| NWS open lakes forecast | 3 h | |
| NWS marine forecast, GLFLE | 7 min | |
| NWS marine forecast, NSHBUF | 8 min | |
| NWS marine forecast, NSHCLE | 13 min | |
| Buoy, 45142 | 30 min | |
| Buoy, 45167 | 28 min | |
| Buoy, 45220 | 25 min | |
| NWS marine alerts, LEZ020, LEZ040, LEZ041, LEZ061, LEZ149, LEZ169 | 10 min | |
| NWS forecast, Buffalo | 21 min | |
| NWS forecast, off Dunkirk | 11 min | |
| NWS forecast, Erie | 19 min | |
| NWS forecast, off North East | 15 min | |
| NWS forecast, off Presque Isle | 17 min | |
| NWS forecast, off Sturgeon Point | 16 min | |
| Water level | 23 min |
Values as of Wed, Oct 7, 00:00 EDT. This page is rebuilt once a day, at about 06:30 EDT (05:30 EST in winter).
Live values and the plan
Water conditions and Forecast show these values live, hour by hour; Plan ranks the areas for your boat and limits. They open after the Terms of Use are accepted, and show Lake St. Clair, the lake chosen in the app; choose Lake Erie (eastern basin) on the home page to see it there.
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