Lake Erie (western basin) conditions today
Wednesday, October 7, 2026. Conditions, not a fishing report: this page has no catch reports.
Lake Erie (western basin), Wednesday, October 7, 2026: lake 63.0 F (projected from the satellite value of Oct 5), 0.5 F below the 1995-2025 mean for the date; over-water wind 14-22 mph (NWS, off Toledo); CastScience Wave Prediction at the roughest area up to 3.6 ft (largest about 6.7 ft, Grubb Reef (south-west of Point Pelee)); in effect: Small Craft Advisory (NWS); Strong wind warning IN EFFECT (ECCC, Western Lake Erie); season phase early fall.
Lake temperature
Measured: satellite basin mean (NOAA GLERL GLSEA grid), newest day Oct 5 at 65.6 F. The satellite analysis runs a day or two behind.
Projection from the satellite value of Oct 5: a daily heat-balance model. Each day the lake moves toward the day's mean air temperature, faster in wind. The weather of its days: 2 observed at the airport stations, 7 from the NWS forecast, 0 from the NOAA 1991-2020 normals. 80% range: the projection plus or minus 1.28 times the residual standard deviation of a regression of later on earlier GLSEA temperatures, 1995-2025, for the same lead time. Science: water temperature
Wind and waves by period
| Hours | Wind over water | CastScience Wave Prediction, roughest area |
|---|---|---|
| 00:00-06:00 | 18-21 mph from SW | 3.6 ft (largest about 6.6 ft) Caution: waves may be higher than 2 ft. Forecast significant wave height at Grubb Reef (south-west of Point Pelee): 3.6 ft (average of the highest third). Largest wave in about an hour: 6.6 ft. Grubb Reef (south-west of Point Pelee), 04:00; wind there 22 mph from SW |
| 06:00-12:00 | 18-22 mph from SW | 3.6 ft (largest about 6.7 ft) Caution: waves may be higher than 2 ft. Forecast significant wave height at Grubb Reef (south-west of Point Pelee): 3.6 ft (average of the highest third). Largest wave in about an hour: 6.7 ft. Grubb Reef (south-west of Point Pelee), 10:00; wind there 22 mph from SW |
| 12:00-18:00 | 16-17 mph from W | 3.1 ft (largest about 5.7 ft) Caution: waves may be higher than 2 ft. Forecast significant wave height at Grubb Reef (south-west of Point Pelee): 3.1 ft (average of the highest third). Largest wave in about an hour: 5.7 ft. Grubb Reef (south-west of Point Pelee), 12:00; wind there 18 mph from SW |
| 18:00-24:00 | 14-15 mph from W | 3.0 ft (largest about 5.5 ft) Caution: waves may be higher than 2 ft. Forecast significant wave height at Grubb Reef (south-west of Point Pelee): 3.0 ft (average of the highest third). Largest wave in about an hour: 5.5 ft. Grubb Reef (south-west of Point Pelee), 22:00; wind there 17 mph from W |
Wind over water: NWS forecast over open water (off Toledo), issued Tue, Oct 6, 16:01 EDT. CastScience Wave Prediction: modeled for each of the lake's 24 areas from the forecast wind at the area's own over-water forecast point, the open-water distance upwind (fetch) and the depth; each row gives the area with the highest significant wave height in those hours. Hours in local time. Science: waves
Wave model details
Wave heights are model estimates from forecast wind, not measurements, multiplied by 1.15 as a safety margin. Checked against four western-basin buoys (2011-2025), the highest waves of a 12-hour period were 25% or more above the estimate in about 1 period in 80 in open water more than 5 nautical miles from shore (1 in 40 when waves were above 2 ft), and in about 1 period in 6 within 5 nautical miles of shore, also when waves were above 2 ft.
Check the marine forecast and the water at the launch before you go. The decision to go out is yours. Full text
Season phase and front
Season phase: Early fall.
Lake 63.0 F, cooling 0.49 F a day over the last 7 days: 58-68 F and cooling between September and November, so early fall.
Front: Stable.
No front signal in the hourly pressure and wind data, so stable (assumption).
The phase temperature limits and the front rules are starting assumptions. Science: fish and temperature, fronts
Advisories and warnings
Small Craft Advisory: Small Craft Advisory issued October 6 at 9:45PM EDT until October 7 at 4:00PM EDT by NWS Cleveland OH
From Wed, Oct 7, 04:00 EDT to Wed, Oct 7, 16:00 EDT. Zone LEZ144. NOAA National Weather Service.
Strong wind warning IN EFFECT (Western Lake Erie; Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada).
Issued Tue, Oct 6, 18:30 EDT. ECCC gives no end time: the warning stands until a later ECCC forecast drops it. Read Tue, Oct 6, 23:24 EDT.
Data ages
How old each source was at Wed, Oct 7, 00:00 EDT, when these values were read.
| CPC 6-14 day outlook | 7 h | |
| ECCC marine forecast and warnings | 36 min | |
| Ice cover (GLERL) | 10 h | |
| Lake temperature (GLSEA grid) | 12 h | |
| Airport daily weather, Port Clinton | 16 h | |
| Airport daily weather, Toledo Executive | 16 h | |
| Airport hourly weather, Port Clinton | 46 min | |
| Airport hourly weather, Toledo Executive | 49 min | |
| NWS open lakes forecast | 2 h | |
| NWS marine forecast, GLFLE | 50 min | |
| NWS marine forecast, NSHCLE | 56 min | |
| NWS marine forecast, NSHDTX | 52 min | |
| Buoy, 45005 | 9 min | |
| Buoy, 45165 | 6 min | |
| Buoy, 45200 | 4 min | |
| Buoy, 45201 | 1 min | |
| Buoy, 45202 | 33 min | |
| Buoy, SBIO1 | 22 min | |
| NWS marine alerts, LEZ444, LEZ142, LEZ143, LEZ144, LEZ162, LEZ163, LEZ164 | 3 min | |
| NWS forecast, Bass Islands | 57 min | |
| NWS forecast, off Toledo | 58 min | |
| NWS forecast, Port Clinton | 62 min | |
| NWS forecast, Detroit River mouth | 59 min | |
| NWS forecast, Toledo | 26 min | |
| Water level | 18 min |
Values as of Wed, Oct 7, 00:00 EDT. This page is rebuilt once a day, at about 06:30 EDT (05:30 EST in winter).
Live values and the plan
Water conditions and Forecast show these values live, hour by hour; Plan ranks the areas for your boat and limits. They open after the Terms of Use are accepted, and show Lake St. Clair, the lake chosen in the app; choose Lake Erie (western basin) on the home page to see it there.
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